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Cadila + Glenmark Pharma - Dose for your Portfolio

Citigroup has reiterated OVERWEIGHT on Cadila Healthcare and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals with a BUY recommendation.

Cadila Healthcare:
Cadila continues to make progress in its effort to consolidate its position across key markets of US, Brazil, France & India. The adverse impact of generic competition for Protonix in the US on its JV with Nycomed is reflected in financials & valuations. Excluding a mark to market forex loss of Rs47m incurred in 4Q, FY08 results were in-line with expectations. Sales growth of 26%, EBIDTA margin expansion of 53bps & recurring PAT growth of 23% are impressive given that Zydus Nycomed witnessed a 20% & 28% YoY decline in sales & net income respectively.

Hospira JV to become operational in 2HFY09; Cadila is awaiting regulatory inspection around September'08; JV with Nycomed expanded to include manufacturing of 17 APIs (including pantoprazole) - new plant to be set up in Mumbai & revenues to commence in FY10; 5th IND filed in drug discovery research; Cadila has no plans to spin this business out unlike some of its other peers in the industry.

Citi expects Cadilla Healthcare to report an EPS of Rs 26.91 for FY09 and recommends a BUY with a target price of Rs 384.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals:
Glenmark has further strengthened its R&D pipeline, made good progress in key markets & completed its reorganisation process. US sales, in particular, doing very well on the back of shared exclusivity in Trileptal. Glenmark also thrived in markets such as India, CIS & LatAm on the back of new launches. It also received R&D income of US$60m, up 93% YoY, as part of its deals with Forest & Eli Lilly.

8 NCEs & 5 NBEs in the pipeline of which 3 are in P-II; expects to have 8 in the clinic, at least 5 in P-II and at least 4 partnered out by end FY09; business reorganization complete; intends to list Glenmark Generics down the line; plans to acquire a US front end for the speciality business over the next 12-18 months.

Citi expects Glenmark to report an EPS of Rs 30.66 for FY09 and hence recommends a BUY with a target price of Rs 770.
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Published by Webmaster @ 12:36 PM IST.

Allied Digital Services - India Focused

JP Morgan has reiterated Overweight rating on Allied Digital Services [ALDS] because of its focus on the booming IT Services market within India. For Q4FY08, Revenues grew 3% Q/Q with strong 40%+ Q/Q growth in the services segment offset by a ~10% decline in the solutions segment. EBITDA margins expanded 4% Q/Q with higher services contribution. However, lower other income and higher taxes led to net profit growth of just 2% Q/Q, still ahead of expectations.

ALDS has set up a procurement assistance group to reduce the low-margin hardware procurement business. While this led to a ~10% Q/Q decline in solutions revenues in 4Q FY08.

ALDS management guided to 70% Y/Y revenue growth in FY09 with further margin expansion. The company has a strong order book of Rs780-800MM in its solution business executable over the next 3-4 months.

JP Morgan expects ALDS to report an EPS of Rs 46 and Rs 83 for FY09 and FY10 respectively.The stock is trading at a P/E of 18x FY09E EPS with a 75% EPS CAGR over FY08-10E. Given the strong domestic demand outlook with corresponding low risk from rupee appreciation, expect the stock to move up gradually, after the sharp 4x jump from its IPO price. JPM has set a target price of Rs 1,200.
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Published by Webmaster @ 10:35 PM IST.

Merrill downgrades IndiaBulls to bears

Merill Lynch has downgraded the price target for IndiaBulls Financial Services by 46% on the back of the sharp earnings cut due to lower loan growth.

Indiabulls' 4QFY08 earnings, up 56% yoy and 16% qoq were in line with expectations due to lower provisions. However, net interest income growth was lower than expected at 39% yoy and flat qoq. This was, in part, driven by IFSL's desire to ensure ample liquidity for itself. Hence, it borrowed aggressively during the 4Q. The cash equivalent in the balance sheet is now Rs7.2bn (US$1.8bn) which is almost +40% of the total assets.

Merill is lowering earnings estimates by 46% and 70% for FY09 and FY10 primarily because we are factoring in lower loan growth at 75% (v/s 100% earlier) and +300bps margin pressure as IFSL is more likely to keep a higher share of cash equivalents (that earn a negative spread) on its balance sheet to ensure there are no liquidity concerns.

The stock, trading at 3.3x FY09E book could continue to trade at 3.5x owing to its high ROE (28%), high NPL coverage (critical in this business), earnings growth of +45% CAGR. Merill has set a new price target of just Rs 700.
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Published by Webmaster @ 11:45 AM IST.

Citi Downgrades ICICI Target Price

Citigroup in a report released just minutes ago has downgraded the Target Price set on ICICI Bank because of lack of direction and decision. There was almost no growth in the quarter – disappointing, but very acceptable in challenging times.P&L has done well - employee cost control with suggestions of more, fee growth acceleration to 35%+, and continued trading gains. These could provide significant earnings leverage. However, margins - the big P&L lever and hope - disappoint, with only limited expansion; outlook too appears a little muted.

Pain on international (doubling of provisions/write-downs) and on consumer book (higher deterioration and provisioning) - but probably along expected lines. Is the worst over? Too early to call, but consumer likely the bigger risk.

Citi's target price of Rs1185 (previously Rs1510) is based on our EVA model. Target price incorporates Rs337 (previously Rs386) for its securities unit. In addition, we factor in Rs337 as the value of its subsidiaries - specifically, these are; Life insurance Business at Rs246 per share (18x FY09E NBAP), General Insurance at Rs20per share (20x FY09E PE), AMC at Rs17 per Share (6% of AUM), ICICI securities at Rs39 per Share (15x FY09E), Venture Fund at Rs15per share (15% of FY09E AUM). ICICI Bank is expected to report an EPS of Rs 43 for Fy2009.
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Published by Webmaster @ 10:24 AM IST.

Axis Bank - Divergent Views

The best quarter in FY08. Axis Bank reported Q4FY08 net profit of INR3.61bn, +71% y-o-y, and c30% above our estimate. Strong net interest income growth on the back of unabated credit offtake and robust fee income growth were the key drivers. The Bank continued to focus on the large & mid corporate and the SME segments for driving its loan growth, though retail also showed signs of picking up.

Axis Bank reported its Q4 and it is worthwhile to read two research reports - one published by HSBC and the other by Morgan Stanley. While the former is Overweight, the latter is Underweight. They have Zameen Aasman difference in their 12 months price targets :-)

HSBC Outlook on Axis Bank:
Core business performance strong as reflected in high profitability ratios; continued investment in branches and employees could make Axis a strong play on the market.

Axis continued to invest in branches, ATM and employees to drive the natural growth of the Bank. In Q4FY08 alone, Axis has added 63 branches, 169 ATMs and hired c4800 employees to support its fast growing business. We estimate that this has helped Axis increase its market share from c2% at end-March 2007 to 2.9% at end-March 2008.

HSBC expects Axis to report an EPS of Rs 42 and Rs 56 for Fy09 and Fy10. HSBC sets a target price of Rs 1,000

Morgan Stanley on Axis Bank:
Axis Bank’s tier 1 ratio declined to 10.2% from 12.6% last quarter and 13% post recent capital issuance. This implies that the bank has consumed more than 40% of recent capital raised (where it had issued almost 25% new shares) in just two quarters

Morgan's Modelware expects Axis to report an EPS of Rs 34.8 and hence it has set a price target of Rs 550 with an underweight rating.

We think the bank may report an EPS close to Rs 38 and hence recommend a HOLD.
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Published by Webmaster @ 11:54 AM IST.

Hanung Toys & Textiles - Time to Play

HDFC Sec recommends a BUY on Hanung Toys & Textiles from a 6 months perspective.There is a lot of outsourcing opportunities due to lower labour cost in India & companies like HTTL, which are aggressively ramping up capacities, would be able to cater to the growing demand. HTTL's new Home Furnishings facility at Roorkee with an installed capacity of 35 mn meters of fabrics processing p.a. is expected to contribute 47% to the total revenues by FY09, thus becoming a major growth driver.

The new soft toys unit at Noida in SEZ with an installed capacity of 6.3 mn pieces p.a. has begun its commercial production from April 2008. In April 2008, HTTL entered into MoU with a Chinese soft toys manufacturer to buy out 100 per cent stake in the company.This inorganic move could strengthen HTTL's international presence, improve its overall soft toys market share & provide ample scope for margin expansion going forward.

HTTL's constant efforts to capture the retail presence & leveraging its brand equity through strategic alliances with companies like Star India & Percept Pictures would enable it to capture a better market share domestically.

At CMP of Rs. 238, HTTL trades at 11.4xFY08E & 8.3xFY09E EPS. The scrip has the potential to trade at 10xFY09E EPS [Rs 29]. Hence HDFC Sec recommends the investors to buy this stock at current levels and add it on dips to Rs.210 with a 6-9 months price target of Rs. 288.
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Published by Webmaster @ 10:20 AM IST.

Buy Jaiprakash Associates - Kotak

Jaiprakash Associates [JA] is a play on India's Infrastructure sector. JA derives its value from combination of Construction and Development. Kotak sec has initiated coverage on JP Associates with a BUY recommendation.

JA will emerge as a leading developer of Real Estate and Power generation. The company has the expertise to bag mega projects. JA has the right to develop 6,250 acres of land on the Taj Expressway corridor.

Kotak estimates JA's revenues to grow at a CAGR of 35% between FY-08 and FY12 mainly catalyzed by - Increased sales of cements after adding capacities, Development of Real Estate and expressway projects. Power generation is likely to see a sharp increase from FY11. JP Associates has also bagged the popular Ganga Expressway project which is not being considered in the current valuation because the project is still in nascent stage.

SOTP Valuation of Jaiprakash Associates:
Cement Business - Rs 58 / share
Construction - Rs 37 / share
Real Estate - Rs 127 / share
Power - Rs 92 / share
Hotels - Rs 4 / share
Net Debt - (- Rs 39 / share)

Total Rs 279 / share. The company is expected to report an EPS of Rs 9.1 for FY09 and Rs 14.7 for FY10. It will also hit the Rs 10,000 crore sales mark in FY10. Kotak recommends a BUY with a price target of Rs 280.
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Published by Webmaster @ 12:16 AM IST.

Deepak + Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers - HDFC Sec

Deepak Fertalizer"DFPCL is setting up a 0.3 mtpa Greenfield nitric acid and ammonium nitrate plant in Paradeep, Orissa at a capex of about Rs 5 bn. The company intends to divest 49% stake in this project to YARA International, a global major in fertilizers.DFPCL has its gas supply met from ONGC's Mumbai Offshore; however, due to a problem at their end, the gas supplies fell in FY08E. We expect the situation to turn into normalcy and DFPCL to get higher volumes of gas from ONGC.

FY09, will be an inflexion year for DFPCL, with most projects stabilizing and getting on-stream. Gas too will be available through KG basin. We expect re-rating standing by a visibility in sustainable earnings growth over a longer term and availability of gas. The stock is attractively priced at 7.1x FY09E EPS and 5.4x FY10E EPS. HDFC maintains the BUY rating albeit with a modest Target price of Rs 169 (Our target Price earlier was Rs 204). Our target price corresponds to 11.5x FY09E PER.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertiliser:GNFC's profit grew at a CAGR of 21% during FY05-07, mainly led by strong realisations in chemicals. Fertilisers accounted for 58% of revenues, but contributed only 18% to profits in 9MFY08. GNFC's urea plant has fuel oil as its feed. The company produces about 0.64 mtpa of urea and is required to switch over to gas before March 2010, beyond which the government would stop subsidizing its expensive urea.

It is investing about Rs 7.5bn for the conversion and the draft policy allows the manufacturer to retain savings on energy for a period of UPTO 10 years, but it leaves room to withdraw the policy within five years. As the policy is ambiguous about the period, GNFC is waiting for the final policy notification to come through.

Its utilization rate in chemicals has been over of 120% for 4 years in a row. The CAGR in PAT of 41% during FY04-07 was mainly led by higher realizations in chemicals, stringent cost savings and other income.

GNFC has been trading at a 25~30% discount to private sector players like Tata Chemicals and Coromandel. We expect the valuation gap to continue, given public sector image and and slower profit growth in FY10E.HDFC has set a target price of Rs 166 on the stock with a market performer rating.
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Published by Webmaster @ 1:34 PM IST.

Chambal Fertiliser + Coromandel Fertilisers Coverage

Fertiliser stocks have been in the news for a while. Much of this has to do with hardening global food grain and fertilizer prices, which have brought the spotlight on Indian fertiliser stocks.Fertiliser consumption to grow at 4% CAGR FY 07 - 12E. Growing at 4% p.a. Low capacity additions expected to lead to a deficit of 5~6 mtpa till FY11E. Firming international prices of fertilizers, making imports an expensive proposition. Positive view on select commodities like Soda ash & Acetic Acid.

Chambal Fertilizers: CFCL has been operating at over 100% capacity for last 4 years. We expect the capacity utilisation to marginally improve and production to compound 2% during FY07-FY10E.CFCL has the capacity to produce about 1.73 mmt of Urea, which through debottlenecking is expected to go up to 2.2 mmt by FY10, at a marginal capex of about Rs 8 ~10 bn.

CFCL had diversified into many a business including food processing, seeds, shipping, textile and technology. The divesting of its interest in seeds and food processing business during FY07-08 at a marginal profit, hints at getting out of non-core/ not so profit making segments. Expect the topline to compound 7.5%, while the earnings to compound 26.3% during FY07-10E. The trading at more than double the valuations of GSFC & GNFC at 17.5x FY09E and 14.5x FY10E PER.

HDFC has set a base case target price of Rs 68 and bull case target price of Rs 79 with a OUTPERFORM Rating

Coromandel Fertilisers:Coromandal Fertilisers Ltd (CFL) is a part of US $2 bn Murugappa Group. It is a leading producer of complex fertilizers & derives nearly 10% of its turnover from Pesticides.

CFL's gradual buy out of Godavari Fertilisers and Chemicals (GFCL) during FY05-08 for a consideration of cash and equity seems an excellent decision. We estimate the entire buy out to have cost about Rs 3.4 bn, which is about 42% cheaper than IFFCO's buyout of Oswal chemicals in Sep'05. The ability of the management to turnaround GFCL from a loss of Rs 136 Mn in FY03 to a profit of Rs 393 Mn in FY07 is a point in case.

CFL has shown the ability to weather adverse business cycles in the past and has made strategic moves to secure future earnings and growth. At the CMP of Rs 122, the stock trades at 5.8x & 5.2x it's FY09E & FY10E expected earnings. HDFC upgrades recommendation to BUY from Outperformer with a price target of Rs 171 on expectations of EPS of Rs21 for FY2009
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Published by Webmaster @ 1:14 PM IST.

Merill initiates coverage on Aptech Ltd

DSP Merill Lynch has initiated coverage on Aptech Ltd with a BUY rating.The recent sharp 45% fall in stock price on concerns over IT training market is overdone. As the company evolves from a IT training company in India to a diversified training company. The company's IT training in China contributes 40% to revenue while non-IT services, including animation, aviation and online testing account for 50%.

Aptech's 30% revenue CAGR to be driven by 25% growth in the retail IT training business in China, where it is the market leader, and 45% growth in its institutional segment from customer interface training and online testing. The company is also benefiting from strong retail demand for vocational training from the booming services sector in India, particularly from emerging industries such as animation and aviation.The higher-margin retail business is expected to increase from 73% to 77% over the next two years, accounting for 70% of incremental EBITDA and 300bp of margin expansion.

Merill expects the stock to re-rate on strong earnings growth of 70%, a 5x jump in cash flow given the asset light model and improving RoE. Visibility is high, given the 55% jump in order booking. The company is expected to report an EPS of Rs 15.5 for Fy09. Buy with a target price of Rs 310.
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Published by Webmaster @ 10:23 AM IST.

Slower GDP Growth Inevitable - Goldman Sachs

WPI inflation continued to accelerate to 7.41% yoy in the week ending March 29, from 7% yoy in the previous week. Inflation is now at its highest level since November 2004, and significantly above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) comfort ceiling of 5%.Minerals prices hastened by 42%, while basic metals rose 20% respectively yoy, reflecting a one-time upward adjustment to WPI prices which have been running up for several months.

Goldman Sachs expects RBI to increase the repo rate by 50 bp in its April policy meeting to primarily arrest inflationary expectations and second round effects. The central bank will encourage further INR appreciation.

The latest IP data shows that growth is continuing to moderate, rather than slow sharply. Key coincident indicators such as cellular subscriptions, the PMI, and non-food credit are also pointing towards continued moderation in activity. Goldman Sachs expects GDP growth to slow to 7.8% in FY09 from 8.7% in FY08.
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Published by Webmaster @ 3:19 PM IST.

Expectations from Banking Stocks

DSPML in a report expects private banks led by HDFC to Outperform the market; top line growth to be weak for govt. banks owing to margin compression and lower loan growth. Private banks should still deliver 25-30% growth. Key risks are to FY09E growth. It estimates this could impact govt. bank earnings by +10-14%, halving the earnings growth to 5-15% from +20-25%.


Private banks' anticipated earnings growth of +25-30% should be driven by their ability to gain market share and customers as they rapidly expand their distribution. Moreover, leading players like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank have refrained from cutting rates.

DSPML strongly recommends buying into the larger stocks such as ICICI Bank (provides value at 0.8x book after adjusting for overseas impact and discounting value of subsidiaries); HDFC Bank (growth expected to sustain at +30%, that is likely to be rewarded by markets) and SBI (trades at <1.0x> We recommend HDFC Bank and BOB.
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Published by Webmaster @ 11:34 AM IST.

Overweight on India Infrastructure - Credit Suisse

Credit suisse in a report released just a while ago continues to be overweight on Indian Infrastructure and Capital Goods Sector except Power Generation.
It has revisited several companies and has set fresh expectations and Target prices.

The infrastructure spend in India to show good growth, with the company targeting 35% YoY growth for FY08 and FY09. Project finance will not be an issue for public sector plays like NTPC and State Electricity boards. However, among private sector players, companies with good execution skills will have a better probability of putting up capacity.

ABB India - Overweight - Target of Rs 1,700 EPS FY09 - Rs 37.9
BEML - Overweight - Target of Rs 1,368 EPS FY09 - Rs 66.8
BHEL - Overweight - Target of Rs 2,714 EPS FY09 - Rs 95.8
Crompton Greaves - Overweight - Target of Rs 475 EPS FY09 - Rs 12.4
L&T - Overweight - Target of Rs 4,818 EPS FY09 - Rs 99
Punj Lloyd - Overweight - Target of Rs 617 EPS FY09 - Rs 18.6
Siemens India - Overweight - Target of Rs 797 EPS FY09 - Rs 34.3
Thermax - Overweight - Target of Rs 900 EPS FY09 - Rs 38.8
Voltas - Overweight - Target of Rs 238 EPS FY09 - Rs 8.3

CS is neutral on Reliance Energy, Tata Power, CESC and NTPC with target prices of Rs 1,227, 777, 434 and 194 respectively.
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Published by Webmaster @ 3:48 PM IST.

Inflation rises to record 7%

Inflation based the wholesale price index rose 7% in 12 months to 22 March 2008, accelerating from the previous week's rise of 6.68%, government data showed today. The rate is the highest reading since 4 December 2004 when it was 7.07%. The annual inflation rate was 6.54% during the corresponding week of the previous year.

As soon as the figures were out, Banking stocks came under selling pressure and the BSE Bankex was down 3.50% at 7,547.04.Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 5.71% at Rs 609), ICICI Bank (down 4.53% at Rs 752.20), Indian Overseas Bank (down 3.53% at Rs 128.50), Axis Bank (down 3.49% at Rs 719.50) and Bank of Baroda (down 3.13% at Rs 274.15), slipped.

Adding to the woes of the market was the release of Emerging Markets: Is It Time to Cash In ? by Knowledge @ Wharton which is keeping the bulls away. The report specifically points to Reliance Power IPO - frenzied bidding for IPOs in India of companies with no revenues and earnings; and to the Real Estate Bubble in India commercial and residential real estate prices in major emerging market financial centers exceeding those in New York and concludes by saying gravity will bring stock market valuations back to earth in the emerging markets.
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Published by Webmaster @ 1:29 PM IST.

Vishal Retail - Outperformer

Looks like every Retail Research Analyst has started chasing Vishal Retail. We will cover notes from two HSBC and ICICI Analyst who have reiterated OUTPERFORM rating on the stock.

The expansion plan of Vishal Retail is very aggressive. It increased its retail space from 88,700 sq.ft. in FY03 to 1.3 mn sq.ft. in FY07, CAGR of 94%. We expect the retail space to increase to 5.1 mn sq. ft. by FY10, at a CAGR of 59% over FY07-FY10E. The company targets Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities where there is little or no presence of organised retail players. The company is planning a preferential allotment of shares to fund rapid expansion. Vishal is rolling out diversified formats such as "Vishal Fashion" for apparels and has plans for others like convenience stores, restaurant chains, etc.

Vishal Retail has signed an agreement with HPCL for opening stores at HPCL's select outlets in the country. Until now only McDonald burgers and Pizza Huts Pizzas were sold at Petrol Pumps, now visitors will get to shop in Vishal's Mini Stores. Internationally these stores record revenues of 2/3 of the total sales of the gas Station.

The company's operating margin is higher than to peers due to owned manufacturing capacity of apparel, higher proportion of apparel in the sales mix (60%), sales of private labels only in apparels, high share of private labels in the sales mix, efficient supply chain and distribution system and low rentals.

Vishal currently trades at 22x FY09e and affords an EPS CAGR of 84% FY08e-FY10e. HSBC values Vishal Retail on a blended PE and DCF basis and arrive at a target price of INR 1,133, which translates into 32x FY09e EPS.

If you are interested, check out an excellent comparison of Reliance Fresh Vs Food Bazaar Vs Subhiksha supermarkets in the Mumbai region.
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Published by Webmaster @ 8:19 PM IST.

Sharekhan on Genus Power Infrastructures

Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd (GPIL) has bought a 6 mega watt (MW) power generation plant from Genus Power Products Ltd (GPPL). Subsequently, the shareholders of GPPL would receive one fully paid-up share of GPIL for every 60 fully paid-up shares of GPPL currently held by them.

The 6MW plant of GPPL is based on biomass technology and the power generated can be sold as well as used for captive purposes. This will be a win-win situation since by selling the power generated the company would boost its revenues whereas by using the same captively would save its power cost. GPIL would also enjoy tax benefits under section 80-IA as per which the income from power generation is nontaxable for ten years of operations.

The additional capacity of 6MW could add to the profits of the company. However,
the equity would also be diluted by 1.5-1.8%. The the company is well poised to benefit from the government's plan to spend on the country's power transmission and distribution sector. At the current market price the stock discounts our FY2009E fully diluted earnings per share by 7.2x. Sharekhan expects the company to report an EPS of Rs 53.5 for FY09 and has set a target price of Rs 643.
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Published by Webmaster @ 2:12 PM IST.

Anand Rathi bullish on Pyramid Saimira Theatres

Pyramid Saimira Theatres (PSTL) operates in all categories - Film exhibition - multiplexes, cineplexes and single screens; Film distribution and also in content production for TV / films. Headquartered in Chennai, it commands 44 multiplexes with 113 screens, and 590 single screens. It has now expanded its (film exhibition) business to Malaysia, China and the US. Its film exhibition model is asset-light (all the theatres are rented not owned). PSTL has recently ventured into film production and TV production by launching a subsidiary, Pyramid Saimira Productions Limited (PSPL). PSTL uses an end-to-end Digital Cinema Solution in few of its theatres, and this is set to revolutionize the distribution and exhibition system in the Indian film industry.

Pyramid Saimira Productions Ltd., (PSPL), its subsidiary would also release about 30 films in the four South Indian States in FY09.

For the year ending Mar-09, the company is expected to do earnings of Rs 23.8 per share [on expanded capital]. At current price of Rs 315, it is available at fairly attractive valuations of 13 times FY-09 earnings. One can buy the stock with stop loss of Rs 250 and look for targets of Rs 380 in short to medium term and Rs 430 in
long term.


Kindly note that we have started including Anand Rathi in our coverage from April-1st due to exodus of large number of Research analysts from Citigroup to AnandRathi including former Citi head, Ratnesh Kumar.
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Published by Webmaster @ 7:58 PM IST.