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Indian Economy, Macro, RBI Policies / India 6.4 Trillion Economy
« Last post by resh on April 07, 2021, 06:21:29 AM »
Morgan Stanley Report

India’s economy would pass the US$6.4 trillion mark by 2030, with per capita income at US$4,279 – reaching the upper middle income country threshold.

This implies a real GDP growth of 6% and nominal growth of 10-10.5%. A key ingredient to our forecast is our estimate that manufacturing
as a share of GDP will rise from approximately 15% of GDP currently to 20% by F2030, implying that its goes from US$400bn to US$1175bn.

Markets
By 2030, India's market capitalization could grow to US$6.4 trillion in line with GDP growth, an annual increase of 10%. With accelerating earnings and reasonable relative valuations.

Is Market Cap / GDP = 1.0 the new normal in valuation ?
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Experian-Equifax / Advantages of Credit Card over UPI / Mobile Wallets
« Last post by resh on March 15, 2021, 01:18:11 PM »
A credit card is a very versatile and highly evolved financial product that offers a much stronger proposition to customers versus other payment products.

An interest-free credit period of up to 50 days to customers on their spends. Credit cards are accepted globally and are also used for
higher-value transactions, unlike other digital payment modes. These differentiating characteristics should continue to drive credit
cards' sustained growth in India.

Flexipay - This feature allows credit cardholders to pay for retail purchases in a number of equated monthly installments (EMI).

Balance transfer - This allows credit cardholders to transfer their existing balances from one institution's credit card to another.

Easy money - Personal loans are offered to credit cardholders within the existing cash advance limit on their credit cards.

Reward points - Credit cardholders also can earn rewards points from purchases online as well as at merchant outlets. Institutions also offer “accelerated” reward points at designated merchants, as well as periodic promotional rewards milestones to stimulate cardholder behavior.

NOTE
1. Credit Cards should never be used for Withdrawing CASH
2. Always Pay your Card Bills in Full before the Due Date.
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Experian-Equifax / Credit Card Penetration India Vs Global Peers
« Last post by cardbhai on March 15, 2021, 12:23:41 PM »
The credit card penetration is quite low in India as compared with levels in other countries. There are only 62 cards outstanding
per 1,000 people of the working age population in India.

Even spends on credit cards as a percentage of GDP is just ~3.6%, which is substantially lower when compared with countries such as
South Korea (38%), US (18%) and Australia (17%). Also, while overall consumer loans to GDP in India is ~19%, credit card loans forms only 0.8% of GDP. Thus, we see a strong structural growth opportunity for India's credit card industry.
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IPOs and Rights Issues / Brookfiled REIT IPO Subscription
« Last post by resh on February 05, 2021, 07:35:30 PM »
1    Institutional Investors    41605400    198903800    4.78 Times
2    Other Investors    34672800    407040600    11.74 Times (Retail & Individual is here)

Total 7.94 Times Subscribed.

On the Day before the Last Day subscription was mere 0.75% of the IPO. So all the Bids came in on the Last Day which is 10x Times since the IPO Subscribed 7.94X.
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CIBIL Credit Report Score / PSU Banks Disbursing Retail Loans
« Last post by resh on December 28, 2020, 11:00:09 AM »
Updates from the RBI and CIBIL Transunion point towards the following: (a) Improved expectations of loan demand based on loan officer survey, (b) Survey indicates easing of loan terms and conditions, and (c) Improving loan inquiry levels, albeit below pre-Covid levels. Having said that, system loan growth has remained in the ~5% yoy growth range.

Retail loan growth held up better for PSU banks (up ~15% yoy) as of August 2020, while private banks witnessed a much lower growth of 6% yoy. NBFC retail credit balances were down ~9% yoy.

Loan Against Property LAP credit shrunk meaningfully on a yoy basis in August 2020, while some other categories like credit cards, auto loans and home loans have held up better.

Loan inquiries have recovered to year ago level in November 2020  for all segments except personal loans (down ~43% yoy). Loan inquiries recovered the earliest (by June 2020) for PSU banks. Personal loans segment has witnessed a steep fall in loan origination volumes. NTC loan origination had taken a hit in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, but is now trending back to pre-Covid level.

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India Credit Cards / Personal & Business Loans / Digital Payments Hit All Time High
« Last post by resh on December 28, 2020, 10:56:50 AM »
We use payment data released by RBI and National Payment Corporation of India (NPCI). Specifically, we track UPI, IMPS and NETC FASTag transaction values. Daily average UPI and IMPS transaction values recorded an all-time high in November and continued to increase in December. NETC transactions are above pre-Covid levels and at an all-time-high. Also, we note that some of the UPI/IMPS transactions may be in lieu of cash payments (as people avoid handling cash used by others) and may not reflect more total spending by consumers
67
Real Estate / SEZ in India / Embassy REIT - Equity Capital - Total Outstanding Units
« Last post by resh on December 26, 2020, 02:02:46 PM »
Embassy Office Park REIT - Equity Capital - Total Outstanding Units

1. After the QIP issue of 111,335,400 units, Total Outstanding = 88,30,00,743
2. 6,48,93,000 Units were made to Garg Family in lieu of surrendering their stake in Vikas Telecom SEZ

Total Outstanding Units = 94,78,93,743 Units
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India Credit Cards / Personal & Business Loans / MarketShare of Spend + Top Players
« Last post by cardbhai on November 18, 2020, 08:02:56 PM »
The Indian Credit Card market is dominated by Private Banks cornering 77% of customers while the lethargic PSU Banks have 23% of Indian Credit Card Customer base.

Private Sector Banks Credit Card Customers MarketShare
HDFC Bank 25.5%
ICICI Bank 15.8%
Axis Bank 11.7%
Citibank 4.7%
Kotak Mahindra 4.5%
Other Private Banks & FIs hold the rest

SBI Credit Cards hold 18.8% Market Share


Market share based on total credit card spends in India
HDFC Bank 31.2%
SBI Cards 20.1%
ICICI Bank 13.6%
Axis bank 8.3%
Citibank 6.4%
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India Credit Cards / Personal & Business Loans / Card Additions up sharply MoM; spends flat
« Last post by resh on November 18, 2020, 07:55:20 PM »
The total credit cards in force increased 1.5% MoM in Sep-2020 to 58.7mn, after increasing 0.3% MoM in Aug-2020. In Sep-2020, all domestic players in the top- 10witnessed net additions to their cards in force, of 1-3% MoM, barring Kotak, which remains cautious on the segment.

Domestic players barring Axis Bank  had witnessed net additions to cards in force in Aug-2020 too; however, the pace of additions has sharply ramped-up in Sep-2020. This reflects that banks are reaching closer to their normal rates of card sourcing. The rate of card additions was the highest for IIB, AXSB and SBIN in Sep-2020 versus others.

Credit Card Spend in India
Spends/card declined 2% MoM in Sep-2020, after a 10% MoM growth seen in Aug-2020. Spends/card had earlier declined 59% MoM in April due to the lockdown, after which they continually increased over May to August. Spends/card will likely accelerate in 3QFY21 due to festive-season spending. On a YoY basis, total card-spends were down 16% in Sep- 2020. Average monthly spends per card decreased to ~Rs8,600 in September (~Rs8,700 in August).
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MidCap Stock Picks / HDFC Securities Diwali 2020 Picks
« Last post by resh on November 11, 2020, 01:06:49 PM »
Here is a List of Stocks recommended by the HDFC Securities Investment Research Team as picks for Diwali 2020

Stock / CMP / Price Band for Accumulation / Target

Alembic Pharma 1001.0 877-885 1148 Till Next Diwali
Credit Access Grameen Ltd 624.0 520-540 797 Till Next Diwali
Gujarat Gas Ltd 296.2 270-273 356 Till Next Diwali
Mphasis Ltd 1371.5 1234-1238 1511 Till Next Diwali
Radico Khaitan 441.0 380-390 545 Till Next Diwali

Large Cap Stock Recommendations are as follows,

Stock / CMP / Add on Dips / Target

Bharti Airtel 452.7 400-403 597 Till Next Diwali
Cadila Healthcare 439.0 385-393 508 Till Next Diwali
ICICI Bank Ltd 440.0 395-405 503 Till Next Diwali
Infosys Ltd 1094.0 1002-1006 1205 Till Next Diwali
United Spirits Ltd 532.0 441-451 645 Till Next Diwali

NOTE: These are HDFC Securities recommendations and not mine.
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