Recent Posts

71

Experian-Equifax / Experian's View on COVID Impact

« Last post by resh on September 19, 2020, 11:02:47 AM »

Experian India is a leading credit-bureau in India and highlighted that retail unsecured lending is more concentrated in top-cities and nearly 60% of the loans were classified as Red-zone (i.e. higher Covid cases & longer lockdowns). While lockdowns are being relaxed, a reasonable part of lending and collections is still done physically, rather than digitally, hence it would reflect in growth and asset quality for lenders.

Mr. Sathya Kalyanasundaram echoed the high level of moratoriums across products and divergence across the lenders. He believes that this underlines the client-selection as well as capabilities to enhance analytics and build collection-machinery beyond credit-bureau scores. Interestingly, he pointed that borrower behavior indicates that borrowers who can repay, will actually pay-back all loans.

He highlighted that over the past month there has been a reasonable uptick in demand for consumer goods/ personal loans. Experian India's base case is that by October 2020, demand should revert to normalised levels. However, lenders are being very cautious on fresh lending so approval rates on applications are likely to be much lower. In the personal loan segment, he believes that ticket size of loans will fall as borrowers will also be more cautious and unlikely to borrow purely for lifestyle related loans

72

MidCap Stock Picks / Edelweiss - MidCap + Small Cap Top Picks

« Last post by chetan on September 19, 2020, 10:47:58 AM »

Here is the List of Top MidCap & Small Cap Picks from Edelweiss Research after the 25% compulsory holding rule from SEBI in Midcap & Smallcap Stocks for MultiCap Mutual Funds.

NOTE: Please Consult your Registered Investment Advisor Before doing any Investments

Godrej Properties
Coromandel International
AU Small Finance Bank
Jindal Steel & Power
Aarti Industries
Tata Power Co
AIA Engineering
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services
Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical
IndiaMART
Exide Industries
Crisil
JK Cement
Mahanagar Gas
Persistent Systems
Galaxy Surfactants Ltd
Indian Energy Exchange
Quess Corp
Cyient
Dhanuka Agritech
TCI Express
eClerx Services
Just Dial
TCNS
Mahindra Logistics
Prince Pipes
Polyplex Corporation
Vesuvius India
Greaves Cotton
Heritage Foods Limited

73

SmallCap Stocks India / Aavas Financiers + Music Broadcast

« Last post by komal on September 15, 2020, 12:22:51 PM »

Ambit Capital's Note on Aavas Financiers

During FY16-20, both real estate & housing finance companies have been under severe stress due to events like RERA, Demon, IL&FS and an economic slowdown. During the same period Aavas financiers, a formidable housing finance player has seen its market share more than double from ~1.4% to ~2.9% in the affordable segment. This has been on the back of 47% CAGR in AUM versus a 23% growth in affordable housing finance industry, while overall housing finance industry growth has been even lower at just 14%.

and on Music Broadcast Ltd  (RadioCity)
Music Broadcast has adopted a disciplined approach of profitable growth with focus on bottom-line. This has kept them away from poor capital allocation decisions like some of the peers. The company is profit leader in the industry and in tough times this allows it to gain over peers

74

MidCap Stock Picks / Britannia Industries - Good Days

« Last post by komal on September 15, 2020, 12:20:54 PM »

Here is an excerpt from Ambit Capital on Britannia Industries Ltd

Many would characterise the last few years as economically challenging years with a series of disruptive events such as demonetisation, GST reforms and now Covid to name a few. However the biscuit manufacturer of choice, Britannia Industries has been marching to a different tune. Biscuit market share has increased to 36%, a gain of 400bps in the last 3 years itself. During this period the gap between Britannia and its peer set has considerably widened and that too with good reason.

75

SmallCap Stocks India / Top 5 Buy Ideas

« Last post by komal on September 15, 2020, 12:12:04 PM »

Here are the Top 5 high conviction smallcap ideas which Motilal Oswal Securities expect to do well in the short to medium term

The stocks are fundamentally sound with good growth potential

One can buy this basket of 5 stocks with a potential upside of 10-15% over a time frame of 1-3 months and keep a stop loss of 7-8% on the overall basket

Birla Corp
IEX
Teame Lease
Essel Propack
KEI Industries

76

MidCap Stock Picks / Top 5 Picks - Motilal

« Last post by komal on September 15, 2020, 12:10:39 PM »

Motilal Oswal's Top 5 MidCap stock Picks.

The stocks are fundamentally sound with good growth potential.

One can buy this basket of 5 stocks with a potential upside of 10-15% over a time frame of 1-3 months and keep a stop loss of 7-8% on the overall basket.

Aditya Birla FAshion & Retail
JK Cements
Tata Power
Ashok Leyland
Dr Lal Path Labs

Disclaimer: Please consult your RIA before making any decision

77

Real Estate / SEZ in India / 99acres - weak billings - operation metrics

« Last post by resh on September 09, 2020, 02:15:58 PM »

99Acres.Com Revenues declined by 24.7% yoy due to weak buy and sell activity in 1QFY21. Billings declined by a sharp 71% yoy, and this is indicative of continued weak real estate activity.

Brokers now contribute 56% to revenues (rest from builders and home owners).

Real estate has been already slowing down for the past few years and was severely hit by the long period of lockdown. Billings had declined 90% in April, 85% in May and 52% in June.

Rentals are still down compared to last year but form only a small part of overall business.

Total listings have recovered to pre-Covid levels. Dealers and developers are slowly coming back to the platform but have not reached back to previous-year levels.

Traffic recovered to 85% in June. Buyer traffic in August was up 11% from pre-Covid levels and 3% yoy. Buyer enquiries were up 65% yoy.

78

IPOs and Rights Issues / Re: HAPPIEST MINDS TECHNOLOGIES

« Last post by resh on September 07, 2020, 11:22:36 AM »

Choice Broking Analyst Rajnath Yadav has a SUBSCRIBE rating with the following note,
At the higher price band of Rs. 166 per share, HMTL's share is valued at a P/E multiple of 29.4x (to its restated FY20 EPS of Rs. 5.6), which is at premium to peer average of 25.9x.

Sushil Finance Analyst Krishna Rana said,
In last three Fiscals Company grew at ~ 23% CAGR, ROCE of around 29%. The issue is priced slightly expensive at a P/BV of 6.38 and asking price is  at P/E of around 36x against the average industry P/E of 27. Happiest Minds has good business prospects as e-commerce and digital service providers are seen as growing sectors. The sector has shown growth even during the pandemic. Investors can apply for medium term horizon.

79

IPOs and Rights Issues / HAPPIEST MINDS TECHNOLOGIES

« Last post by resh on September 07, 2020, 11:22:21 AM »

We present to you IPO / Public Issue Reviews & Ratings of HAPPIEST MINDS TECHNOLOGIES

ICICI Direct Analyst Devang Bhat without giving any rating said,
At the higher end of the price band of | 166, the stock is available at a PE of ~31x on FY20 diluted EPS.

HDFC Securities - No Rating

Axis Capital - No Rating

Rishi Jhunjhunwala at IIFL Capital said,
The price band is Rs165-166. Considering FY20 adjusted EPS of Rs6.2, the price band implies a P/E ratio of 26.6X, comparable to its larger mid-cap peers such as LTI, Mindtree and NIIT Tech. Based on management comments, the implied P/E multiple for Happiest Minds
is ~12X if we annualize 1QFY21 EPS.

Sneha Poddar of Motilal Oswal said,
At the higher end of the price band, the issue is valued at 29x FY20 P/E (fully diluted), which is comparable to larger mid-sized IT
companies. We like the company given its (1) strong presence in digital services, (2) scalable business model with end-to-end capabilities and (3) fast improving financial performance. Hence, investors can Subscribe to the IPO. Further considering market conditions and bright prospects for IT companies post Covid-era, one may also get listing gains.

SMC has a 3/5 Rating with the following note,
The company is a versatile digital business, product engineering and infra management solution provider company. Digital is growing much faster than traditional business of the company. As much as 97% of the company’s revenue comes from digital, where as the average contribution from digital stands at 40-50%. The company has adopted a mindful IT strategy for its future growth. On the flip
side, the company intends to raise Rs 702 crore from the issue, of which 592 crore is offer for sale.

DealMoney Research said,
In FY20, the company had delivered 87.9% of its projects through agile delivery methodology. Over the years and currently during the ongoing outbreak of Novel Coronavirus, it has successfully implemented its business continuity plans including to achieve efficient work-from-home practices to ensure connectivity across the enterprise. Based on FY20 consolidated numbers, the issue is priced at a P/E of 31x. at diluted EPS of FY20 Which is priced fairly therefore we recommend SUBSCRIBE over the issue for a long term perspective.

80

Indian Retail Forum and Discussion / Re: Comparing of BigBasket JioMart DMart Amazon Online Grocery Retailers

« Last post by resh on September 04, 2020, 01:20:26 PM »

Comparing Online Grocers JioMart Vs Flipkart Supermart and DMart Ready

JioMart is currently delivering fresh and grocery within two days of ordering and wants to take this to T+1 soon: The plan is to eventually move this to one-hour delivery with kiranas doing the final fulfillment while JioMart will help them with inventory, technology solutions and customer orders.



The omni-channel retail capability powered by JioMart along with Reliance Retail's widespread physical presence (with two-thirds of its 12,000 stores in Tier 2-4 towns) will be a key near-term growth area, and could have a significant bearing on India's eCommerce sales. JioMart will also leverage WhatsApp to create a seamless transactional experience for customers.