A substantially large portion (72%) of the respondents thought that GDP growth would be less than 6% in India for FY13, whereas 20% think it could even be less than 5%. Only a minority (4%) think that growth in FY13 could be higher than in FY12. The general expectation seems to be of one even lower than both our estimate of 6.2% and official estimates.
The Ministry of Finance has projected 7.6% GDP growth in its budget, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects it at 7.3%. The chairman of GE recently commented that “the mood in the market is worse than the mood on the ground”.
India‟s long-term growth story
India can return to its pre-crisis growth levels (c.9%), a staggering 85% of our clients thought it would be before 2016, the majority of them (80%) believing this would be between 2014 and 2016. They probably expect the 2014 general elections to effect a change in the political scenario that will be more conducive to economic growth.
