Historical precedent does not favor the market for the next two months. The markets are usually flat in the month ahead of the budget and, in two out of three years, fall in the month following it.
Indeed, in the period 1979-2009, March was the market’s worst month with two out of three years witnessing negative returns averaging 2.7%. The 15-day period post the budget produces an average negative return of nearly 4%. The extent of sell-off has been worse over the past three years with the market losing 9% on an average in these years.
And the expectations the Analysts on the street have built up are - push forward on policy reforms including a roadmap for GST, reduction in deficit, divestment plan, acceleration in infrastructure spending and a definite time line for direct tax reforms.