Merrill downgrades IndiaBulls to bears

Merill Lynch has downgraded the price target for IndiaBulls Financial Services by 46% on the back of the sharp earnings cut due to lower loan growth.

Indiabulls’ 4QFY08 earnings, up 56% yoy and 16% qoq were in line with expectations due to lower provisions. However, net interest income growth was lower than expected at 39% yoy and flat qoq. This was, in part, driven by IFSL’s desire to ensure ample liquidity for itself. Hence, it borrowed aggressively during the 4Q. The cash equivalent in the balance sheet is now Rs7.2bn (US$1.8bn) which is almost +40% of the total assets. (more…)

Central Bank of India – Disappointing

Central Bank’s profits declined 15% yoy (6% below estimates) due to a sharp drop in margins, higher loan loss provisions and taxes. Operationally the quarter was weak; cost control the only positive. We believe, given its large corporate loan book; it will be structurally difficult for CBI to co-manage high growth and profitability.

Central Bank’s NIMs dropped over 140bps yoy to 219bps for 4Q08. The drop in margins was significantly more than estimated with aggressive loan growth (+26% qoq) and decline in CASA ratio necessitating a rollover of high cost funds. With its top-line focus and large corporate loan portfolio, we believe margins will remain under pressure.

Costs have remained under check with a 4% decline yoy. After adjusting for pension arrears, CBI’s Tier1 capital has fallen to 5.4% (10.4% overall) as against the required 6% under Basle II (effective Mar09 for CBI);.

Expect CBI to report an EPS of Rs 15.24 for FY2009.

IVR Prime Urban Developers enters joint development agreement

IVR Prime Urban Developers has entered into joint development agreement for construction of high rise residential apartments. The 9.6 acre gated community project at Kukatpally, comprises a built up area of 1.325 million Sft and a parking area for 1200 cars. The Rs 386 crore project consists of a 2 bed room apartments of 1250 Sft, 3 bedroom apartments of 1500 Sft and 4 bedroom apartment of 1800 Sft each.

The company is also set to foray into the city of Visakhapatnam with its real estate development at Vedurvada, located near the Vizag Steel Plant. The project is named Misty Woods and is spread in the area of 130 acres. The location is surrounded by the 6000 acre Naval and Air Force Academy and upcoming SEZ of Achutapuram. Companies like Brandixs Apparel Park, HPCL, Pokarna granites, St.Gobain etc are a part of this SEZ.

Buy Sesa Goa – Kotak

Sesa Goa managed by Anil Aggarwal of vedanta is India’s largest private sector exporter of iron ore with mining activities in Goa, Karnataka and Orissa and also owns a prospecting license in Jharkand. Kotak has initiated coverage with a BUY recommendation ahead of the Bonus and Stock split.

Expect company to double the annual iron ore sales to 25MMT in next five years while rising 20% to 15MMT in FY09E from the 12.4MMT in FY08. Sesa Goa should be able to negotiate additional mining contract agreements in the coming years. (more…)

Citi Downgrades ICICI Target Price

Citigroup in a report released just minutes ago has downgraded the Target Price set on ICICI Bank because of lack of direction and decision. There was almost no growth in the quarter – disappointing, but very acceptable in challenging times.P&L has done well – employee cost control with suggestions of more, fee growth acceleration to 35%+, and continued trading gains. These could provide significant earnings leverage. However, margins – the big P&L lever and hope – disappoint, with only limited expansion; outlook too appears a little muted. (more…)

Sanwaria Agro Oils – Result Analysis

Sanwaria Agro Oils – SAOL exceeded sales estimates by a wide margin & PAT estimates marginally for FY08. It achieved a turnover & PAT of Rs. 9386 mn & Rs. 543 mn respectively against an estimated turnover and PAT of Rs. 8234 mn & Rs. 501 mn respectively. EPS for FY08 stood at Rs. 6.2 [FY07: Rs. 1.4] vs. estimated EPS of Rs. 5.8. The net sales & PAT increased by 110.7% & 344% respectively over FY07. EBITDA margins improved from 5.2% in FY07 to 8.3% in FY08. PAT margins increased from 2.7% in FY07 to 5.8% in FY08. Improved realisations, better capacity utilisation & economies of scale contributed largely to the sales & profitability growth.

SAOL has expanded the existing daily crushing capacities at Mandideep & Itarsi from a total of 1,000 TPD to 2,000 TPD & refining capacity from a total of 150 TPD to 300 TPD. The commercial production of the same has commenced from January 15 2008. The full impact of this expansion is expected in FY09.