Equity ResearchCredit Suisse Outlook for Indian Equities in 2014
November 25, 2013
The Indian markets will be driven by politics and developments around the “taper” to drive the market in the first half of 2014. Both will have limited impact on fundamentals, but market sentiments will still get affected. Their research suggests almost no correlation between the extent of government fragmentation at the centre and growth / market performance.
Investment Cycle Broken
They foresee the investment cycle staying broken for the next two to three years and middle-income consumption to stay under pressure as inflation and stagnant Read More »
November 5, 2013
The Sanctity of Highly Paid Equity Research is – It Follows the market and never Leads At a time when all the Star Analysts Downgraded India, the market rose very sharpy. And this time around, Goldman Sachs Star Analysts, Timothy Moe, Sunil Koul and Team have upgraded India to MarketWeight from Underweight.
The Report said that there exists optimism in the political front, led by BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Mr. Narendra Modi. External Pressures have moderated according to Goldman and early signs of cyclical pick up and structural improvement. Read More »Is the Indian StockMarket Co-Related to the Economy and Industrial Performance ?
October 31, 2013
Despite deteriorating fundamentals of the Indian Economy amidst CBI raids on Industrialists, the Indian StockMarket is Rising and is inches away from the all time high. A simple analysis of the performance of stocks and the contribution to the market movement over the past 14 months (ever since the Paralysed Government started its reforms program) shows that the bulk of the market’s performance has been driven by stocks that have very little to do with India. In fact, the sharp Rupee depreciation (9.8% over this period) is one of the prime drivers of the performance of companies with overseas or US Dollar revenues and earnings; these stocks have largely contributed to the strong market performance.
After a brief period of out performance in the immediate months after the Read More »
Indian Markets / Economy & Macro / Sector ResearchViews of Various Brokerages on New RBI Governor and Policy
September 23, 2013
The rBI Governor announced his first Monetary Policy on Friday. Here are the Reactions coming from various Chief Economists of Brokerage / Research Houses.
Ritika Mankar Mukherjee of Ambit Capital said,
RBI governor’s first monetary policy review, the RBI normalised the MSF-repo rate corridor (effectively by 100bps) and increased the repo rate by 25bps. In view of the RBI’s explicit focus on inflation, we reiterate our view that repo rate increases of another 25-50bps are likely to be administered over the rest of FY14. This is likely to be accompanied by the continued stabilisation of the MSF corridor from September to October 2013, as the next Fed meeting is scheduled for end-October 2013. There is a high probability that the next round of intervention is administered in mid-October 2013 i.e. ahead of RBI’s early-November policy review and ahead of the Fed’s end-October policy review
Citigroup Analyst Anurag Jha made the following observation, Read More »Dr Raghuram Rajan takes Charge as RBI Governor – Thugs & Politicians Don’t Mess
September 5, 2013
Dr Raghuram Rajan, world famous Economist has come to the rescue of the Indian Government as he assumed charges as the RBI Governor. The message from the Governor is straight – Progressive Reforms for India.
Highlighting the critical need for transparency and predictability in conveying and guiding monetary policy, governor Rajan appeared to draw a distinction with the frenetically paced and sometimes contradictory and counter-productive measures taken by the Read More »Congress Governments Policy Failure & Corruption Puts RBI in Tough Spot as Rupee Hits Life Time Low
July 8, 2013
The Stagflation [Stagnancy of Reforms since Scams Broke Out + Inflation] prevalent in India, accelerated by Populist measures such as Free Food Security Bill for Votes [Costing the Nation Rs 125,000 Crore every Year] has put additional pressure on the Indian Rupee as it hit an all time low of Rs 61.53 against USD since independence in 1947. Indian Central Bankers, RBI is busy as it is caught between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea and here is an excerpt of their strategies to protect Indians from the vested politics of Central Government.
Limited FX intervention RBI will intervene only to provide liquidity to FOREX markets and not to influence its direction. The central bank thinks Read More »
Corporate Earnings NewsCorporate India Cautious – No Pick up in Investment Demand Yet
November 27, 2013
At the CLSA India Conference, Indians Corporates appeared to be cautious and most highlighted weak consumer demand as a near-term headwind. The cautious view was emanating from the belief that the market has already factored in, partially, the strong outcome in the elections.
Weak Consumer Sentiment
10 companies from consumer staples & retailing appeared cautious on the near term growth outlook citing weak consumer demand partially Read More »
NSE Nifty in Long Term Trading Range
November 12, 2013
The Nifty has been ranging for over two-years, the ranging pattern is roughly 40% (or 1,800 pts) wide. When the market finally breaks out of these ranges the minimum expectation will be for a 40-50% advance.The most dynamic price moves occur when markets emerge from a prolonged period of sideways trading. The longer the time spent ranging the greater potential of the ensuing breakout. However, with the Nifty in US dollar and relative terms nowhere near breakout levels we are not expecting the Nifty to record a sustained breakout at this time. Read More »
IPO ReviewsSubscribe to PowerGrid FPO at Cut-Off
December 4, 2013
PowerGrid Corporation of India’s FPO is an attractive opportunity to own the fast-growing (19% net profit CAGR in FY13-17) near monopoly regulated power utility with stable RoEs (~16% in FY15/16). Whilst 10% equity dilution at Rs90/share was the ideal scenario, the 13% dilution at Rs85 (the lower band of the FPO) would raise enough equity to meet the equity needs up to FY15E/16E capex. The allowed return on equity in 2001-04 and 2004-09 was 16% and 14%, respectively. The CERC increased the regulated RoE to 15.5% + 0.5% incentive for timely completion of the projects.
After aggressive bidding in the initial eight Read More »
Why Powergrid is going for FPO ?
August 6, 2013
Powergrid Corporation acknowledged that its decision to go in for a 15% follow-on equity offering (FPO) is arguably contrary to its stance in recent investor interactions, wherein it has indicated: 1) the need for fresh equity is not envisaged in its base case business scenario, and 2) a firm decision on the issue would be taken after examining the FY15-19
regulatory returns regime to be finalized by regulator.
Investment opportunities are growing, all of which would cumulatively require a sizeable equity infusion – in the past few weeks PWGR has won a bid-based project Read More »
Mutual Funds in IndiaMadhusudan Kela – Reliance Mutual Fund, CIO’s message
November 15, 2012
We present to you the view of Madhusudhan Kela, Sr. Fund Manager and Chief Investment / strategist Officer with Reliance Capital Asset Management company on the occasion of Diwali.
Once again, as the biggest and the brightest Hindu festival, Diwali, is upon us, it is indeed a time for introspection, celebration of life and its gifts. [Skippng some Paragraphs Related to Religious References..]
Just think, last Dec, investors had started Read More »HDFC Top 200, Equity Funds – Review + What Next ?
November 1, 2012
If you’ve been a reader of our Site, then you all know we first recommended investment in HDFC Mutual Funds way back in 2003 and since then have been advising to stick to SIPs with Top-Ups during Market Crashes. Let us analyze what our SIPs have actually given us in Returns with the market going nowhere in the last 30 Months. [Sensex 17,527 March-2010]
HDFC Top 200 Fund Review
This the Largest Equity Fund in India which has grown organically over 15 years and has Assets Under Management around Rs 11,000 Cr. In the last 10 years / 5 years period, the fund has consistently beaten benchmarks. However, returns in a longer duration i.e since inception has tapered off from 28.33% in March-2010 to just 23.49% in Sept-2012 as shown below. Read More »