RBI Hikes CRR by 0.75% – Repo Rates Unchanged

RBI has hiked the CRR – Cash Reserve Ratio by a whopping 75 bps instead of the expected 50 bps. CRR will change from 5% to 5.75% and will be effective in two stages 50 bps effective Feb-13 and the second 25bps on Feb-27. The hike will suck Rs 36,000 cr of liquidity from the market.

RBI for now has left the Repo and Reverse Repo Rates unchanged.

As outcome of CRR hike, the RBI said,

Reduction in excess liquidity will help anchor inflationary expectations. The recovery process will be supported without compromising price stability. The calibrated exit will align policy instruments with the current and evolving state of the economy.

The next date for review of monetary policy will be announced on April-20th.

Vascon Engineers + Aqua Logistics and Other Reviews

Due to some personal work and migration of the blog to new publishing platform, we have posted the reviews of IPOs on the Forum.

You can read the review of Syncom Healthcare, Vascon Engineers, and Aqua Logistics . WE hope to be back to publishing individual reviews soon. Brokerage / Analyst reviews will continue on the Forum.

Government Fails to Control Food Inflation – Touches 17.4%

Domestic equity markets turned negative in the late afternoon session tracking rise in food price inflation to 17.40% for the week ended January 16 from 16.81% the week before.

Surge in the food inflation has once again raised apprehensions of stricter measures from the central bank in its policy review [Our opinion, the RBI is lacking the will for strict measures and is un-necessarily taking directions from the South Block].

The government released the wholesale price index (WPI) in respect of primary articles and the fuel group on Thursday. The primary articles Index, which has a weight of 22.02% in the overall WPI, increased by 0.32% to 285.5 from 284.6 in the previous week. As a result, the annual rate of inflation for primarily articles, calculated on point to point basis, increased to 14.66% as compared to 13.93% for the previous week and 10.96% during the corresponding week of the previous year.

IndiaBulls Financial Services – Large Write Off

IBFSL’s 3QFY10 earnings of Rs640mn were 40-45% below est. owing to a write-off of ~Rs610mn in one large a/c. However, excluding w/o, earnings were 8-9% below estimates, owing to higher–than-estimated repayments, despite in-line disbursement growth.

However, excluding w/o, earnings were 8-9% below estimates, owing to higher–than-estimated repayments, despite in-line disbursement growth. But, for this, all other parameters have rebounded, with disbursements of Rs21bn vs. ~Rs16bn in 2Q; loan growth up 6% qoq; margins holding up; headline gross & net NPLs down 2% qoq

IBFSL has settled with one large a/c, which had been in the news the during Oct- Dec 09 period. Of the Rs2.9bn o/s, Rs2.3bn is the settlement amount between parties.

Big Monetary Policy Coming this Friday

Ahead of RBI’s monetary policy on Friday, 29 Jan, the domestic Macro scenario has improved with industrial production at 10-11% growth, inflation with the Dec reading crossing the RBI’s Mar 10 target of 6.5% and Loan growth returning to the double-digit range.

The street expects the RBI to begin normalizing rates with a 25-50bp increase in the CRR and 25bp increase in repo and reverse repo rates. Surprise could also be a withdrawal/roll-back of some of the liquidity injection measures taken during the crisis. (more…)

Bharti Airtel Impressive Q3 FY2010 – Buy

Some of they things to observe from Bharti Airtel’s Q3 FY 2010 results are – RPM declined 8% qoq to Rs0.52 vs. our estimate of 11%,
implying lower than estimated impact of tariff cuts in 3QFY10, Capex
declined 26% qoq to Rs16.9 bn. Enterprise/ Telemedia revenues declined 4% QoQ.

Continued increase in Network Operation expenses poses downside risk to margins. Continued increase in SG&A expenses poses downside risk to margins. Airtel DTH segment results reported for the first time and EBITDA loss of Rs2.5bn in 3Q. (more…)