Feb industrial production: Momentum shows uptick

The negative IP growth was in line with the consensus forecast of a 1.3% yoy decline and our expectation of a 1.5% yoy decline. The monthly momentum rose by 0.6% mom in February, higher than the 0.2% mom rise in January. For the April-January months, IP grew 2.8% yoy versus 8.9% yoy in the same period previously.

The Capital Goods Index rose by 10.4% yoy in February versus a 8.9% yoy rise in the first 10 months of the year. The monthly momentum in capital goods rose 1.2% mom s.a. (seasonally adjusted) in February, versus a 0.5% mom decline in the previous month. The Infrastructure Index for February rose 2.2% yoy in February compared to 1.5% yoy in January. Production of
consumer goods shrunk 3% yoy, lower than the 5.9% yoy average growth in the first 10 months of the fiscal year. However, on a monthly basis, growth in the Consumer Goods Index rose 0.7% mom from a 0.3% mom fall in January.