Dalal Street Investments

Fund Managers Views + Opinion – Macro

November 10, 2009

In the past 18 months, we have already told you that Analysts & Fund Managers views have always followed markets but not lead them. However, with signs of stability if not growth, fund managers views become important. In the light of these developments, we have refined few dozen reports and here is what these wealth managers are of the opinion of Indian Macro Environment.

We will cover the opinion of all the Billion Dollar Fund Managers View on Equity Markets in the next post.

India Macro View by Global Fund Managers:

GDP – Majority feel that the same would be in a range of 6 –6.5%.The weighted average expected GDP growth rate of Indian economy in FY10 was at 6.16.

INR Vs USD – A range of 46 –48. The weighted average expectation on the Dollar Rupee Rate is at 45.86 in the current quarter.

Manufacturing – growth rate for the same would be greater than 5.5%

Services Sector – growth rate for the same would be in a range of8-9%.

Agriculture – growth rate for the same would be in a range of-2 to -1%.

Inflation – a marginal increase in inflationary expectations to 3.57%.

CRR & Repo – CRR rate to be between 4.5-5.5%at the end of FY10. Repo rate to be greater than 5.0%at the end of FY10.

Credit Rating – The fund managers expect that theupgrades of credit ratings in FY10 would be higheras compared to the previous years even in this quarter and the number of fund managers who agree on this point has increased compared to the previous quarter.

Long Term Bond Funds / GILTs – Expect Yield of 6.5%. We will cover their views on Equity Markets tomorrow. Questions and Comments are welcome.


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