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BUY Finolex Industries – ICICI

May 25, 2007

Finolex Industries is the largest PVC pipe and second largest PVC manufacturer in India.
Demand-supply mismatch for PVC
During 2001-2006, capacity addition grew at a miniscule CAGR of 2%, whereas demand continued to surge in double digits at a CAGR of 11%. This has resulted in firm PVC prices and high capacity utilisation rates for domestic manufacturers.

Robust demand for PVC pipes
Finolex is the leader in PVC pipes with a 20% market share in the domestic organised market. PVC pipes are used for irrigation as well as in sanitation and plumbing systems in the construction sector.

Timely capacity expansions, cost reduction initiatives
Finolex has doubled its PVC resin capacity from 130,000 to 260,000 tpa in 2006 by setting up a VCM (vinyl chloride monomer)-based new facility

ICICI expects the company to report net sales of Rs 1282.50 crore in FY08 and net profit of Rs 78 crore, translating into an EPS of Rs 6.29. At the current price of Rs 78, the stock trades at a P/E multiple of 13.8x its FY07 earnings of Rs 5.64 and 12.4x its FY08E EPS of 6.29. On an EV/EBIDTA basis, the stock is available at 6.7x FY08E earnings. ICICI believes that the stock is attractively valued and set a price target of Rs 93.6, for 3-6 months, an up-side potential of a 20%

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