ITC – FMCG + Hotels – Time to Light Up the Cigarette ?

Analysts are now making investment case for Cigarette and FMCG Major – ITC Ltd. ITC’s earnings growth has been remarkably stable despite tax increases and regulatory restrictions, reflecting its strong pricing power. ITC’s CAGR was 18.4% over the past decade and average variance was only 3ppts. The new smoking ban appears to have had little effect and we do not expect it to have much impact in the medium term.

Volume growth of approximately 20% in filter cigarettes in 1HFY09 is encouraging and expect a 15% Cagr in the cigarette business Ebit over FY08-11. (more…)

Gayatri + Simplex Projects – Q2 Performance

Gayatri Projects revenue for Q2 /Sept-08 increased by 44% to Rs. 207 crs from Rs.144 crs in the corresponding quarter Sept-07. EBITDA margin for the company dipped 363 basis points to 11.86% in quarter ended Sept-08 whereas Net profit margin was down by 59 basis points to 4.13% in Q2 FY09 as compared to 4.72% in same quarter last year.

For the half-year ended 30th September 2008, the total revenues grew by 50% to Rs. 414.25 crores from Rs. 276.93 crores during the same period last year. Overall PAT increased by 45% standing at Rs. 19.82 crores, from Rs.13.74 crores during the same period last year.

Raw Material to sales has gone up to 85.21% during the quarter from 78.07% in the corresponding quarter last year. Whereas the employee cost and other expenses increased by 58.86% and 63.16% respectively during the current quarter Sept 08 due to which the EBIDTA margins reduced 11.86%. The EBIDTA increased by 10.04% to Rs. 24.55 crores and the net profit increased by 25.88% to Rs. 8.56 crs during the current quarter Sept 2009.

Simplex Projects net sales (standalone) was up by 31.80% to Rs. 72.28 crores in Q2FY09 over Q2FY08. This is due to timely execution of contracts. However, net sales (consolidated) was up by 25.45%. The Operating Margins (OPM) of the company stood at 10.75% for Q2FY09 in comparison to 12.75% in Q2FY08. The fall came from the rise in raw material cost and employee cost. Operating margins on a consolidated basis stood at 11.06% in Q2FY09.

Profit After Tax (standalone) for the company has increased by 8.65% to Rs. 4.90 crores in Q2FY09 over Q2FY08. The company has raised Rs.55.5 crores from IPO. This was raised for financing the long term working capital (Rs. 35.54 crores), acquiring plant and machinery (Rs. 13.88 crores) and investment in subsidiary company (Rs. 6 crores).

Banks Exposure to Commercial Real Estate

As the Real Estate House of Cards collapsed, Banks are busy taking situation of their exposure to troubled Asset –
Indian Real Estate which is decaying like Radio Active Material
. Here is the list of banks with exposure to Indian Commercial Real Estate as a percentage of Networth.

The Top 5 banks in the list of heavy exposure to the troubled sectors are as follows,

  • Indian Oversees Bank – 77.3% of its networth is in Real Estate
  • Axis Bank – 67.4%
  • Bank of India – 58.7%
  • Indian Bank 58.1%
  • Corporation Bank 56.5%

Here is the complete list as published by Kotak Sec Research.
Indian banks Exposure to the Troubled Real Estate Bubble

DSP BlackRock’s S.Nagnath’s Views

hedge funds de-leveraging will continue to keep pressure on the markets. headline news is likely to be gloomy over the next 2-3 months. In the absence of BUYING interest amidst relentless selling will lead to further downside – 15% to 20% from current levels.

The next few months will offer great buying opportunities for those with liquidity and those with the courage of conviction that this financial crisis will be subdued by the end of 2009 and pave the way for stable markets in 2010.

India’s economic growth may slowdown to 6% and corporate earnings growth to 10%, much of this is already factored into. Waiting for arrival of good economic news maybe in-appropriate as stock markets may have already rallied sharply by then. The best time to BUY in Mr. Nagnath’s opinion is over the next 3 months. However, investors who BUY in the next 3 months should have to hold them at least for a period of 12 – 18 months to exit.

RBI’s Liquidity Measures Fail to Cheer the Market

RBI’s latest measures are specific to exporters, real estate, FCCBs and the SME sector – all of which is a step forward towards easing problems currently being faced by each of these segments.

RBI has further raised the interest rate ceiling on NRI deposits by 75bps. The interest rates on FCNR(B) deposits now stands at Libor +100bps while that on the NR(E)RA deposits is now at Libor +175bps. (more…)

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