ICICI Bank – Earnings In-Line

ICICI Bank Net profit of Rs14.4bn (up 30% y/y, 16% q/q) beat expectations due to lower loan loss provisions (LLP). NII of Rs23.1bn (up 12%y/y, 5%q/q) was driven by flat sequential NIM at 2.6% and 15% y/y loan growth. Corporate loans supported loans growth while retail book stayed flat.

Core fee income grew at 14%y/y, 2%q/q. Credit cost declined 54% y/y, 28% q/q to 1%. We believe margins (more…)

Larsen & Toubro – Results Review

Larsen & Toubro’s (L&T) Q3FY11 PAT, at Rs 8.1 bn, driven by strong execution in the E&C segment. Robust revenue growth of 41% YoY reinforces confidence in execution of strong order book of Rs 1,149 bn. Margins have dipped YoY by 150 bps to 10.8%, but this is more a qtly fluctuation than a trend. While revenue guidance has been maintained (20% YoY growth in FY11E), mgmt has highlighted that order flow guidance (25% YoY growth) could be at risk due to deferment of orders to FY12E.

L&T removed order for IT parks of ~Rs20bn from Godrej & Arun Excello on lack of progress. Led by delay of orders from power (more…)

Politics & Corruption Impact on Stocks – Sectors to Stay Out

The most important problem India is facing now is Rampant Corruption from Taluka Panchyat Office to the Offices of Union Government. We expressed our concern as FIIs are unlikely to invest in Economies run by Corrupt Governments [Read here & here] After that most FIIs published report on “Scams & Corruption” in India which has led to the stalemate in our parliament hindering Major Policy Decisions and Blocking the most sought after GST – Goods & Service Tax Bill which was supposed to be implemented from April-1st-2011. This has led to the overall change in Macro sentiment reducing the Market Premium which Indian commanded in the past.

License Raj was the form of Corruption until (more…)

Investors Exit Reliance Anil Ambani Group – Poor Corporate Governance

The country’s watchdog – SEBI settled dispute of Reliance Infra & Reliance Natural Resources involved in fund diversion to group company – RCom by collecting fine amounting to Rs 50 [Rs 25 cR + Rs 25 cR] Cr from Directors including Anil Ambani. This tells us how bad these companies are run – Reliance Infra and RNRL [Now part of Reliance Power] Reliance ADAG Large Cap Stocks were caught in Bloodbath on the Street with each of them falling between 6% to 10%.

The SEBI order said that (more…)

HDFC – Consistent Wealth Creator

HDFC reported F3Q11 PAT of Rs 8.9 bn (+33% YoY / +10% QoQ) This was higher than estimate of Rs. 8.2 bn though it included capital gains (pre-tax) of Rs 1.67 bn [Sale of IL&FS Investment]. Headline loan growth accelerated to 20.6% YoY from 18.7% in the previous quarter and adjusted loan growth (i.e. including sell-downs) picked up to 27% from 24%.

Housing Loan Growth – is picking up for HDFC Ltd after being subdued for most part of last year. Balance sheet loan growth has picked up from 9% YoY in 3Q FY10 to (more…)