Politics & Corruption Impact on Stocks – Sectors to Stay Out

The most important problem India is facing now is Rampant Corruption from Taluka Panchyat Office to the Offices of Union Government. We expressed our concern as FIIs are unlikely to invest in Economies run by Corrupt Governments [Read here & here] After that most FIIs published report on “Scams & Corruption” in India which has led to the stalemate in our parliament hindering Major Policy Decisions and Blocking the most sought after GST – Goods & Service Tax Bill which was supposed to be implemented from April-1st-2011. This has led to the overall change in Macro sentiment reducing the Market Premium which Indian commanded in the past.

License Raj was the form of Corruption until (more…)

Investors Exit Reliance Anil Ambani Group – Poor Corporate Governance

The country’s watchdog – SEBI settled dispute of Reliance Infra & Reliance Natural Resources involved in fund diversion to group company – RCom by collecting fine amounting to Rs 50 [Rs 25 cR + Rs 25 cR] Cr from Directors including Anil Ambani. This tells us how bad these companies are run – Reliance Infra and RNRL [Now part of Reliance Power] Reliance ADAG Large Cap Stocks were caught in Bloodbath on the Street with each of them falling between 6% to 10%.

The SEBI order said that (more…)

HDFC – Consistent Wealth Creator

HDFC reported F3Q11 PAT of Rs 8.9 bn (+33% YoY / +10% QoQ) This was higher than estimate of Rs. 8.2 bn though it included capital gains (pre-tax) of Rs 1.67 bn [Sale of IL&FS Investment]. Headline loan growth accelerated to 20.6% YoY from 18.7% in the previous quarter and adjusted loan growth (i.e. including sell-downs) picked up to 27% from 24%.

Housing Loan Growth – is picking up for HDFC Ltd after being subdued for most part of last year. Balance sheet loan growth has picked up from 9% YoY in 3Q FY10 to (more…)

Rising Interest Rates Impact on Automobiles

With Inflation refusing to calm down, the meek RBI Governor is expected to take some bold steps in the forthcoming Policy Review on the 25th. In expectations of some hard monetary measures, the Auto Index has fallen by 10% since the beginning of Jan-2011.

The auto sector will not escape the impact of slower economic growth, which may be the collateral impact of interest rate hikes, we set out to isolate the real impact of interest rates on auto volumes. Auto volumes in the consumer-driven segments (cars and two-wheelers) are historically correlated much more (more…)

Manomhan’s Measure to Tame Food Inflation – Unacceptable

The Indian Government headed by the Weakest Prime Minister in the History, Dr Manmohan Singh shed Crocodile Tears on Rising Onion and Vegetable Prices by announcing slew of measures which will not have any long term impact on the Food Inflation.

The Government said that Onions, including imports from Pakistan, will be sold through agricultural co-operative outlets at nearly (more…)

RIL’s KG D-6 Fishing in Troubled Waters

As per an industry journal (Indian Petro), RIL has informed DGH that it will not be able to ramp up gas production from its KG D-6 block beyond 50 mcm/d until FY2014E. The company has highlighted that there are some serious reservoir issues including water ingression in wells, sand interference and pressure depletion.

This development, if confirmed, poses a risk to Reliance’s earnings (more…)