Aditya Birla Nuvo – Slower Growth Ahead

Aditya Birla Nuvo’s 2Q FY09 net loss stood at Rs1.05bn, vs loss of Rs283mn in 1Q 09. going forward in FY09, the company is expected to report a Loss.

Pending promoter warrants imply ~Rs34bn (~50% of standalone FY08 capital employed) of potential cash infusion for the Co. The warrants are live until Aug ’09 but we see low likelihood of subscription as the exercise price of Rs2007/sh is ~4-5x current sh. price. In the absence of promoter funding, we expect the capex & growth plans to be scaled back (partly factored into life-insurance assumptions).

ABNL has a 25% stake in Idea Cellular which yields to Rs 530 / share of ABNL pro-rated. ABNL’s financial services business is valued at an enterprise value of Rs686/sh (down 30% vs earlier SoP). Enterprise value of ABNL’s remaining businesses stands at Rs431/sh. Net Debt is at Rs 773 / share as we no longer expect the Birla Group management to subscribe to Warrants at 4 times the CMP.