Dalal Street Investments

Indian Economic Indicators

December 21, 2007

We would like to share the Economic Indicators that we have been mining over several years. We will cover, GDP growth,WPI, Exchange Rate, Fiscal Data, Money Supply, Balance of Payment and Foreign Debt and Reserves.

India GDP Growth:
India’s GDP in %ge was languishing at 3.8% in 2002 and saw a remarkable jump to 8.5% in 2003 with the beginning of Golden Quadrilateral and other reforms set on fire by then Government under Atal B. Vajpayee.
GDP growth in 2004 – 7.5%
GDP growth in 2005 – 9.0%
GDP growth in 2006 – 9.4%
GDP growth in 2007 – 9.0%
GDP growth in 2008 – 8.5% [Expected]
GDP growth in 2009 – 8.81% [Expected]

Indian Population and Per Capita:
The population is expected to touch 1.14 billion by 2009 and GDP Per capita [$] is expected to touch 1,265. Latest figures 2007 – 1.153 billion population with GDP Per Capita – $898.5

WPI Inflation:
Inflation was the lowest in 2001 at 1.6% and since then it has been hovering in the range of 4.0 to 6.5% [2002 and 2006] It is expected to vary between 3.75 and 4.25 in the following 18 months.

USD Exchange Rate:
The dollar has been continuously falling against Indian Rupee since 2001 when George Bush in the Whitehouse. From a record level of Rs 48 against a Dollar it is expected to slide to Rs 36.0 a dollar by 2009.

Money Supply and Credit:
broad Money supply as a % of GDP has been maintained at 25% in the last 3 years and is expected to be around 26% for the next 2 years.

Balance of Payments:
Exports which is at 25% to the GDP is expected to fall to 20% in 2009. While imports which is currently around 27% of GDP is expected to be 25% in 2009. Current account balnace is expected to be -$18.4

Foreign Debt and Reserves:
For the current year, India’s foreign debt is expected to be $180 bn while reserves are expected to touch $296 bn. By 2009, foreign debt will be around $220 bn and forex reserves excluding gold will be $350 bn.


Got something to say?