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India Trade Deficit – All time High

September 2, 2008

India’s Trade deficit in July 2008 hit an all-time high of US$10.8bn. In the first four months of FY09, the deficit swelled to US$41bn, in contrast to US$80 bn for the whole of FY08. Of this, oil accounted for US$26bn and non-oil US$15bn. Exports rose 31.2% in July 2008 against YTD growth of 24.6% mainly on account of the weakening rupee helping the exporters.

Commodity wise export data is now available for FY08, which show strong growth in agro (43%) and oil (33%) exports, while overall manufactured export growth (19%) was much slower. Imports grew 48.1% in July 08 against YTD growth of 34.2%. Oil imports grew 69% in July 08 and 55% YTD.

Figures for July 2008
Exports: US$16.3bn
Imports: US$27.1bn
Trade deficit: US$10.8bn

India’s trade deficit is expected to nudge towards 10% of GDP in FY09 unless oil prices correct sharply. So this data explains how global crude oil price has higher co-relation to the Indian Stock Markets.

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