Indian Equity Research and Investment Strategy
Breaking News in Corporate India / Earnings Analysis
India is all set to become a $5Trillion Dollar Economy in GDP terms by 2025. Backtracking the numbers, Financial services will be a big beneficiary – of this growth. According to Morgan Stanley, for this GDP growth to be achieved, the financial services sector will need to grow in the high teens over the decade.
The last three years have not been kind to the India Financials. The persistent economic slowdown and high interest rates caused default levels to rise (more…)
Indian Retail investors obsess about headline index levels, often missing out the main contributors for the rapid rise in the SENSEX. Investors get the market direction correct, but end up with stocks in their portfolios that are under-performing the market. One of the common reasons this happens, is because of the tendency of investors to look at the big winners of the previous bull market and to assume that they would re-emerge as winners in the next bull run. In the bust that follows the boom, the leaders of the previous bull run, after an exaggerated rally, typically see a very sharp correction in stock prices.
Consider the case of (more…)
The Business oriented Government of Shri Modi Ji indicates a sharp pickup in economic growth in FY 2016 and slow the bad loan formation for Indian banks with strong possibility of recovery of restructured assets. Credit costs should stay elevated, given low coverage levels right now – but likely to be lower than our earlier estimates.
PSU banks like SBI, PNB etc need significant amounts of capital, given the weakness of tier 1, regulatory catch-up, unprovisioned NPL’s, and to fund economic growth. Stronger government raises hope that banks will be properly capitalized rather than piecemeal approach, which has been adopted till now by the previous impotent Congress Govt. To give a shot (more…)
We Summarize the Views of Foreign Institutional Investors the Big Movers and Shakers of Indian Stock Market on the Exit Poll Results.
BOFA Merrill Lynch
Exit polls indicate advantage for BJP-led NDA. Expect 8% return by year-end on the Sensex. Sensex target at 25,500 on stabel Govt scenario. GDP growth likely to recover slowly to 5.4% in FY15. Expect $25bn of portfolio flows to get rupee to 57 – 58 levels. Expect rupee (more…)
Some of the American Foreign Institutional Investors are not convinced about Shri Narendra Modi’s Big victory. Many though seem more confident than we are of a strong government reviving the investment cycle quickly. While it is hard to quantify, this suggests the threshold for market disappointment is not 230-240 seats for the NDA but 210-220.
While some did question if there (more…)
Every Opinion Poll in the country points towards a change in the leadership of Indian democracy from “The Accidental Puppet Prime Minister of India” towards a business & progressive Shri Narendra Modi. Here are the various Voice of FIIs who have bet heavily in Indian equities on the back of opinion polls,
UBS in a Report said,
Opinion polls have been the key catalyst for markets, as expected, in 2014. The last ones were released at the end of last week and voting (more…)