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Historical Indian Bear Market / Correction Analysis

June 10, 2008

Bear Market in Indian StocksYesterday we presented with India’s GDP growth under various governments from 1991 to 2008. Today lets analyze the “Bear Market” or “Market Correction” [Call it whatever you want to] since 1992 to 2008. Benchmark used in the Analysis is NIFTY.

  • April-92 to April-93: Nifty’s peak value in April-92 was 1281 and it corrected by 53% to bottom out at 600 in April-93.
  • Sep-94 to Dec-96: Nifty scaled to a high of 1385 in Sept-1994 and started correction to hit a bottom of 775 in Dec-1996. Correction of 44% over 15 months.
  • Feb-00 to Sep-01: Nifty inched to a peak of 1818 in Feb 2000 and started correcting until Sept-2001 recording a low of 850. Correction of 53% over 20 months period.
  • Jan-08 Till date: Nifty recorded an all time high of 6357 in Jan-08 and has fallen by 30.6% to 4408.

The fundamentals of most companies are strong except little worries on the Fiscal side. It is anybody’s guess where Nifty will halts its downward journey this time. [Maybe 3560 ? indicating a correction of 44% ?]

Also, here is the 10 Biggest Fall in BSE Sensex in the past 12 months.
1. Jan 21, 2008 – 1,408.35 points
2. Mar 17, 2008 – 951.03 points
3. Mar 3, 2008 – 900.84
4. Jan 22, 2008 – 875.41 points
5. Feb 11, 2008 -833.98 points
6. May 18, 2006 – 826.38 points
7. Mar 13, 2008 – 770.63 points
8. Dec 17, 2007 -769.48 points
9. Oct 17, 2007 – 717.43 points
10. Jan 18, 2007 – 687.82 points

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